China Economic Quarterly: 2nd Quarter 2008 / 中国经济研究季刊：2008年第二季度

Real GDP growth and CPI inflation softened in 2Q2008. However, inflation pressures remain worrisome and it is too early for the government to relax its macro policy. We believe higher oil prices worsened China’s growth-inflation trade off and put downward pressure on China’s corporate profitability growth. We assessed the economic impacts of the Sichuan earthquake and the Olympic Games on the national economy and concluded the impacts are likely to be limited. We also assessed the various costs to the Chinese economy of keeping the exchange rate at artificially low level and argued that Vietnam’s economic turmoil offers a valuable lesson for China in this respect.

>>China Economic Quarterly: 2nd Quarter 2008 July 2008 [PDF, 616 KB]

2008年第二季度实际GDP和CPI增速放缓。但我们认为通胀压力仍然堪忧，政府放松宏观政策为时过早。我们认为高油价导致中国经济增长和通胀之间的关系进一步恶化并给中国企业盈利增长加大了下行压力。我们分析了汶川大地震以及奥运会对于中国经济的影响，并认为影响可能较为有限。我们还分析了人为压低人民币汇率所付出的各种代价，并认为越南经济动荡在这方面为中国提供了宝贵的经验教训。

>>中国经济研究季刊：2008年第二季度 2008年7月[PDF, 815 KB]